Multi-Outcome Markets
Most Polymarket markets are Yes/No, but some have multiple possible outcomes. Here's how they work.
What Are Multi-Outcome Markets?
| Market Type | Example | Outcomes |
|---|---|---|
| Binary | "Will X happen?" | Yes / No |
| Multi-Outcome | "Who will win the election?" | Candidate A / B / C / D |
Multi-outcome markets let you bet on which of several options will be correct.
How Pricing Works
Each outcome trades between $0.00 and $1.00:
| Outcome | Price | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Candidate A | $0.45 | 45% chance |
| Candidate B | $0.30 | 30% chance |
| Candidate C | $0.15 | 15% chance |
| Candidate D | $0.10 | 10% chance |
Note: Prices should roughly sum to $1.00 (100%).
How Payouts Work
| What You Hold | Outcome | You Receive |
|---|---|---|
| 100 shares of Candidate A | A wins | $100 |
| 100 shares of Candidate A | B wins | $0 |
| 100 shares of Candidate B | B wins | $100 |
Only ONE outcome wins - all others pay $0.
How Copytrading Handles Multi-Outcome
When a trader you follow trades a multi-outcome market:
| Action | What Happens |
|---|---|
| Trader buys Candidate A | You buy Candidate A |
| Trader sells Candidate A | You sell Candidate A |
| Trader buys Candidate B instead | You buy Candidate B |
You copy the exact outcome they're betting on.
Trading Strategies
| Strategy | Description |
|---|---|
| Single pick | Bet on one outcome you think will win |
| Hedge | Bet on multiple outcomes to reduce risk |
| Arbitrage | Find mispriced outcomes across markets |
Example: Election Market
"Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election?"
| Outcome | Price | If You Buy $50 | If They Win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | $0.42 | 119 shares | $119 (+$69) |
| Trump | $0.38 | 131 shares | $131 (+$81) |
| Other | $0.20 | 250 shares | $250 (+$200) |
Higher upside for less likely outcomes, but higher risk.
Key Differences from Binary Markets
| Aspect | Binary | Multi-Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Outcomes | 2 (Yes/No) | 3+ options |
| Complexity | Simple | More complex |
| Strategy | Pick a side | Pick the winner |
| Hedging | Buy both sides | Buy multiple outcomes |
Pro Tips
- Check all outcomes - Don't miss a dark horse with good value
- Prices sum to ~100% - If not, there may be arbitrage
- Watch for splits - Similar candidates can split votes/probability
- Resolution clarity - Understand exactly what triggers each outcome